1. Our lab believes in the principles of open research, as laid out by the Open Knowledge Foundation. Science rests on reproducibility and the falsification of hypotheses. Those objectives are much more easily attained when data and code are freely available. We strive to do so to the extent allowed by copyright-happy journals,  protective colleagues, and looming deadlines. If we take too long to free it up, feel free to rattle our cage. 


A probabilistic model for

layer-counted proxy archives

  1. Despite a recent explosion in the number of
    stochastic models of dating uncertainties in tie-point chronologies (e.g. Bchron, CLAM, BACON, COPRA), layer-counted archives (tree rings, corals, ice cores, varved sediments, some speleothems) have so far been undeservedly ignored. This terrible mistake has now been repaired, with some style (we like to think).

  1. J.W. Partin, T.M. Quinn, C-C Shen, J. Emile-Geay, F.W. Taylor, C.R. Maupin,K. Lin, C.S. Jackson, J.L. Banner, D.J. Sinclair, and C.-A. Huh.  Multidecadal rainfall variability in South Pacific Convergence Zone as revealed by stalagmite geochemistry, Geology, doi:10.1130/G34718.1.       [PDF]  [SI] [BIB]


  3. T. R. Ault, C. Deser, M. Newman and J. Emile-Geay, Characterizing decadal to centennial variability in the equatorial Pacific during the last millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett,  doi:10.1002/grl.50647

  4.  [PDF] [SI][URL] [BIB]


  6. Emile-Geay, Julien, Kimberly M. Cobb, Michael E. Mann, Andrew T. Wittenberg, 2013b: Estimating Central Equatorial Pacific SST Variability over the Past Millennium. Part II: Reconstructions and Implications. J. Climate, 26, 2329–2352, doi:JCLI-D-11-00511.1   [PDF] [URL][code+data]


  8. Emile-Geay, Julien, Kimberly M. Cobb, Michael E. Mann, Andrew T. Wittenberg, 2013a: Estimating Central Equatorial Pacific SST Variability over the Past Millennium. Part I: Methodology and Validation. J. Climate, 26, 2302–2328, doi:JCLI-D-11-00510.1.  [PDF] [URL]


  10. Emile-Geay, J. and Eshleman, J. A. (2013). Toward a semantic web of paleoclimatology. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 14(2):457–469, doi:10.1002/ggge.20067.

  11.  [Emile-Geay_Eshleman_g-cubed_2013.pdf] [URL] [BIB] [code+data]

In Review

  1. Guillot, D., Rajaratnam, B. and Emile-Geay, J. (2014). Statistical paleoclimate reconstructions via Markov random fields. In review at the Annals of Applied Statistics             [PDF] [URL] [BIB] [code]



  1. Thompson, D. M., T. R. Ault, M. N. Evans, J. E. Cole, and J. Emile‐Geay (2011), Comparison of observed and simulated tropical climate trends using a forward model of coral δ18O, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L14706, doi:10.1029/2011GL048224.   [PDF]  [SI] [URL] [BIB] [Code]

  2. Khider, D., L. D. Stott, J. Emile‐Geay, R. Thunell, and D. E. Hammond (2011), Assessing El Niño Southern Oscillation variability during the past millennium, Paleoceanography, 26, PA3222, doi:10.1029/2011PA002139.  [PDF] [URL]


  1. Dutay,J.­C., J. Emile­Geay, D. Iudicone, P. Jean­Baptiste, G. Madec, and C. Carouge. (2010), Helium isotopic constraints on simulated ocean circulations: implications for abyssal theories. Envir. Fluid. Mech.., 10(1):257–273, 04 2010. doi:10.1007/s10652-009-9159-y. [PDF][URL]


  1. Emile­Geay, J. and M. A. Cane (2009), Pacific Decadal Variability in the view of linear equatorial wave theory, J. Phys.Oceanogr., 39:203–218, doi: 10.1175/2008JPO3794.1. [PDF][URL]

  2. Emile-Geay, J. and Madec, G. (2009), Geothermal heating, diapycnal mixing and the abyssal circulation, Ocean Sci., 5, 203-217, doi:10.5194/os-5-203-2009, [PDF][URL]

  1. Wang, J., Emile-Geay, J., Guillot, D., Smerdon, J. E., and Rajaratnam, B.: Evaluating climate field reconstruction techniques using improved emulations of real-world conditions, Clim. Past, 10, 1-19, doi:10.5194/cp-10-1-2014, 2014.    [PDF][URL]


  1. Emile­Geay, J., Seager, R. M. A. Cane, E.C. Cook, G.H. Haug, 2008 : Volcanoes and ENSO over the past millennium, Journal of Climate, 21(13), 3134–3148, doi: 10.1175/2007JCLI1884.1.

  2.   [PDF][URL]


  1. Comboul, M., Emile-Geay, J., Evans, M. N., Mirnateghi, N., Cobb, K. M., and Thompson, D. M.: A probabilistic model of chronological errors in layer-counted climate proxies: applications to annually banded coral archives, Clim. Past, 10, 825-841, doi:10.5194/cp-10-825-2014, 2014.

  2.  [PDF] [URL] [BIB] [Code]

  1. Emile-Geay, J. and Tingley, M.   (2014). Inferring climate variability from nonlinear proxies.

  2. Application to paleo-ENSO studies.  In review at Paleoceanography          [PDF][Code]